DEFINITION:

Quantitative probabilistic assessment of risk to the population in the vicinity of an airport. The risk is composed of the following three submodels: accident probability per movement, the accident location and the resulting lethality. The risk can be expressed in terms of individual risk and / or societal risk, meaning risk imposed to a group of a certain size.

(Source: ACARE Domain 803)

SUBDOMAINS:

1. Development of methods, (sub)models and software tools to assess risk to the population in the vicinity of airports
2. Risk assessments using these tools
3. Support to development of appropriate risk tolerability criteria
4. Validation and evaluation of risk models and data
5. Collection of input data: population, aircraft movements, aircraft routes, historical accident data, terrain data